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Comprehensive Database

Nations Probability Board

Explore the official analytical calculations for all 48 qualified countries, ranked meticulously by championship likelihood. Track advancement milestones down to group win margins.

Rank Country Group Title Odds Win Chance Reach Final Reach Semis Reach Quarters Win Group
1 Spain Group H +475 17.4% 31.3% 50.0% 61.5% 81.8%
2 France Group I +500 16.7% 25.0% 43.5% 57.4% 69.7%
3 England Group L +650 13.3% 25.0% 41.7% 59.2% 76.2%
4 Brazil Group C +800 11.1% 20.0% 35.7% 54.5% 78.7%
5 Argentina Group J +900 10.0% 19.0% 34.5% 52.4% 77.3%
6 Portugal Group K +1000 9.1% 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% 69.7%
7 Germany Group E +1400 6.7% 15.4% 27.8% 43.5% 75.6%
8 Netherlands Group F +2000 4.8% 10.0% 18.2% 35.7% 53.5%
9 Norway Group I +3000 3.2% 7.7% 15.4% 27.8% 26.7%
10 Belgium Group G +3500 2.8% 7.7% 16.7% 40.0% 69.7%